Gujarat Elections: Before the starting gates open

Dinesh Narayanan
Updated: Sep 12, 2012 10:25:46 PM UTC

Deepak Amin is not the kind of politician you usually run into in rural India. He does not even dress in the regulation khadi of the Indian politician, preferring instead grey trousers, blue shirt and pointy black leather shoes, holdovers from his techie past at Microsoft in Seattle years ago. ``I was one of three guys Bill (Gates) asked to create a rival to Netscape Navigator,’’ Amin says rubbing his shaven head. ``Have any of you used Internet Explorer to surf the Internet?’’ Amin asks about 50-60 people sitting cross-legged on a tarpaulin for an informal, open-air meeting in a new housing society in Patan, a farming district in North Gujarat. ``I was instrumental in making it (IE),’’ he tells them and then goes on to explain how the desire to do something for the people of his home district drove him back home. He even drops names of Jairam Ramesh and Rahul Gandhi, explaining that he worked with them in the `war room’ in Delhi for the Uttar Pradesh and Bihar elections. Before that he ran a company and invested in some others as an angel. ``I have sold them off and will now focus only on politics.’’

Earlier, he had told me that he was the only Congress ticket hopeful who had begun campaigning. Every day he makes trips to villages outside towns, meets sarpanches and introduces himself to whoever else he sees. The general line is I’ve worked in America, been an entrepreneur, I know the ways of the new world and that would help in changing politics. There are at least half a dozen Congress ticket hopefuls in the constituency. One of the reasons perhaps they have not begun campaigning is it needs vehicles and people, all of which costs quite a lot of money.

Patan has a lot of Congress voters but the party lost in the past five elections. The seat is currently held by Anandiben Patel, the revenue minister who is also considered among the few people close to chief minister, Narendra Modi. Patan’s economy centres on its commodities market and does not have any significant industries. The famous Patola sarees are made in this district but it is a dying art; only four families are left who possess the know-how to make them.

``Modi ko hatana hai (Have to remove Modi),’’ Galabji Thakore, a former sarpanch of Jamtha village, says resolutely. Thakore is unhappy because his power bills have shot up. Amin reminds him how the power bills were low when Congress governments were in power and hints that lower tariffs could come back if the party returns to power. ``Isn’t what you are promising contrary to what Congress policymakers in Delhi say about user fees in power, water etc?’’ I ask Amin as we climb into his black Scorpio. ``It is, but this is the reality on the ground,’’ he replies rather uncomfortably.  For all Amin’s promise of a new kind of politics, the same line as his party leader Rahul Gandhi's, it is clear that the party does not have any new strategy.

In fact, it is for the first time that freebie politics is being introduced in Gujarat and the Congress Party is at the forefront of it. The party, which has not got a decisive mandate in the state since the mid-eighties, has promised free plots for houses, laptops for college students, hostels and much more. All of it would be free for the targeted beneficiaries – the low and middle classes. Such freebie politics is only likely to wreak havoc with the state’s finances.

Former BJP chief minister and now party deserter Keshubhai Patel’s brand new Gujarat Parivartan Party is promising to stop metering power supplied to farmers and allowing them to use multiple motors for irrigation. It is also promising Rs 1500 to unemployed youth every month for two years and Rs 2000 to unemployed graduates. In the GPP’s list are free life-saving drugs and also a promise to form special squads to protect cows!
Congress workers on the ground say that there is a possibility of a secret deal between the party and GPP because that is the only way the opposition has any chance of unseating Narendra Modi. The charismatic chief minister of the state is seeking re-election on the development plank and wants to create a record by winning at least 150 seats. He may yet be successful. He began a month-long campaign on 9/11 called `Swami Vivekananda Yuva Vikas Yatra' on the same vehicle that LK Advani used for a cross-country yatra some years ago. Modi began with a frontal attack on the central government, accusing it of rampant corruption, misuse of the CBI and ignoring Gujarat. He has so far completely ignored the taunts of Keshubhai Patel who has compared him with Adolf Hitler and called him a `demon'.

Elections are yet to be announced and are likely to be scheduled for December. In India, a lot can change in three months. Despite his 11-year-long incumbency, Modi has the edge. At the moment it looks like the man on the street is still with Modi even though there are signs of disturbances in community equations.

If Keshubhai Patel manages to convince his community to shift loyalties, he may be able to make a dent in the Saurashtra region. In other places, he may help BJP candidates to defeat. But whether the Patels would go with him is an open question. The Swaminarayan sect is influential in the community, especially among NRIs, and its leadership is said to be supporting the chief minister. The Patels are, however, not very happy about the fact that several of their community members are in jail for participating in the February 2002 riots. The same feeling is taking root among Sindhis after the conviction of Maya Kodnani and 31 others in the Naroda Patiya case. That could erode some votes for Modi, even though the February 2002 riots are an issue for him only outside Gujarat.

The crucial factor locally will always be the candidate. The Congress party’s candidates will be decided by its high command in Delhi while the BJP’s will largely be chosen by Modi. He has a strong grasp of the grassroots trends and issues than perhaps anyone else in the state. Besides, the intelligence bureau has been at work for months collecting information even on every possible opposition candidate.

The GPP has too may leaders, which means loyalty conflicts may make it tough selecting candidates. The party has also been weakened by the sudden death of Kashiram Rana, the powerful backward caste leader and minister in the Vajpayee government.
It will be a tough choice for voters in Gujarat. They could choose Modi and get excellent governance, big industries and global-scale dreams but less of democratic debate and participatory decision-making. If they choose the challengers, they are likely to get a lot of debate (read argument and acrimony) and sops that will feel good but will be bad for the state’s economy and governance.

The thoughts and opinions shared here are of the author.

Check out our end of season subscription discounts with a Moneycontrol pro subscription absolutely free. Use code EOSO2021. Click here for details.

Post Your Comment
Required
Required, will not be published
All comments are moderated